The OLP field is forming, who stands out?

Erskine-Smith, Fairclough, Marando, Handa, De Roche, etc.

Apr 03, 2026

The OLP leadership race is finally starting to take shape. Rumoured candidates are feeling less rumour-y, so I figured now was a good time to check in with the people! I previewed this data on the latest Culture Lab episode. If you want to see what made Gabe’s face do that, check it out! Also, my apologies to Rob Cerjanec. I have been informed it’s pronounced “sir-JAN-ick” 🫣. [Note - this article now includes a part 2]

As I’ve written before, this is a race people should want to hop into. Today, just 41% of Ontarians think things are on the “right track” in the province, 10% fewer than those who think the country is on the right track (51%). There’s also a significant appetite for change - 2 in 3 Ontarians agree “it’s time for a change in government in Ontario,” including 37% who strongly agree.

So who is catching Ontarians’ eye? Or more accurately, who could?

Survey respondents were shown photos and condensed bios for 8 potential candidates. Among Liberal voters, Lee Fairclough and Nate Erskine-Smith are viewed as most interesting - both with 74% of Liberals saying these candidates seem “very” or “somewhat interesting.” Tier 2 includes Dylan Marando (68%), Vikram Handa (65%), and Rob Cerjanec (65%). This group is followed by Eric Lombardi at 57%.

I included my podcast co-host, Gabe De Roche, as a benchmark for an unknown candidate (and maybe for a little podcast lol). 48% of LPC voters say they’d be interested in his candidacy, statistically tied with Navdeep Bains at 46%.

When forced to choose who stood out the most, the same pattern repeats. While Erskine-Smith and Fairclough are top choices among Liberal voters, there’s far from a consensus view. This feels like an open fight among Liberal voters, especially considering just 19% have heard “a great deal” about the OLP leadership race, 42% have heard “something”, and 39% have heard “nothing” about it. We’ll see how open the race is among Liberal members.

Methodology

This survey was self-funded by Relay Strategies. The survey was fielded online via the Cint platform from March 27-29, 2026, among n=842 Ontarians, including n=344 Liberal voters. Online polls do not support the reporting of the margin of error. The images and bios used for candidate testing are included below.

Nate Erskine-Smith

Member of Parliament for Beaches–East York (Toronto) since 2015
Ran for the Ontario Liberal Leadership in 2023 against Bonnie Crombie
Minister of Housing, Infrastructure, and Communities from 2024-2025
Lawyer prior to entering politics

Lee Fairclough

Member of Provincial Parliament for Etobicoke—Lakeshore since 2025
Served as the President of St. Mary’s General Hospital from 2019–2022
Former Vice-President at Health Quality Ontario and worked at the Princess Margaret Cancer Centre

Vikram Handa

Chief Operating Officer of Maya Group, a housing provider in Toronto
Human rights lawyer
Commentator focused on economic justice and tax reform

Rob Cerjanec

Member of Provincial Parliament for Ajax since 2025
Previously a business consultant
Was on the Durham District School Board

* We have since learned Cerjanec was on the senior leadership team at the Durham District School Board and was not on the Board. Our apologies for the error.