The Fallible Mr. Ford
Intel for the next Premier in waiting
Last weekend, the Ontario Liberal Party released its rules for the upcoming leadership race. The OLP will name its 3rd leader since 2018 on November 21. It’s exciting times! Or is it? In my personal conversations with Liberals, I get the sense that the OLP leadership is viewed as… kind of a crap shoot. Organizationally, the Party’s in trouble. Their vote is inefficient. And Ford seems too dominant to beat. But once again, is this true?
This data I’ve cited in this article is a bit old. It was collected in October 2025 and I haven’t been tracking the Ontario dynamic super closely over the past few months. But in Angus Reid tracking, Ford was at 41% approval in September, and 34% if their most recent December release. Abacus Data found the PC’s approval has declined 6-points since JANUARY, and disapproval has increased by a similar margin. In their latest average, 338Canada has the PCs at 45%, OLP 29%, and NDP at 19%. That’s 2-points lower for the PCs vs 338’s October update. All of that to say, I wouldn’t expect this data to be more positive for Ford if it had been collected today.
I led the research for the 2018 OLP campaign and at that time, the worst thing we could say about Ford was that he was a bully. This feels laughable today. Watching past footage of him on Toronto City Council feels like a case of body-snatching. His Premier persona is nothing like DoFo 1.0.
Since the pandemic, there’s been a narrative surrounding Doug Ford that he’s just kind of a likeable guy and that’s what voters are responding to. My data shows that’s only somewhat true. Of the leadership narratives tested, Ontarians are most likely to agree (72%) that “Ford seems to enjoy the public profile that comes with being Premier.” Far fewer, but still half, of Ontarians agree that “regardless of politics, Doug Ford seems like a likeable guy.” However, just 16% strongly agree with this idea, and more (20%) strongly disagree. Even fewer agree that “Ford has been a true leader for Ontario” (43% agree, 15% strongly). Basically, there’s a huge gap between assessment of Ford’s political performance and true leadership and likability.
Ontarians are also very likely to see a deficit when it comes to results: 59% of Ontarians agree, “the only thing Doug Ford seems to ‘get done’ is making it easier to buy beer,” and 57% agree “Ford promised to ‘get it done’ but nothing has gotten better under his leadership.” Importantly, his strong defenders are few; only about 1 in 10 Ontarians strongly disagree with these ideas.
A majority (57%) of Ontarians do believe that Ford has been deeply focused on trade issues with the US, but that majority doesn’t extend to other issues. Just 30% think he’s deeply focused on healthcare and 30% strongly disagree with this idea. Half of Ontarians agree that while “Doug Ford is a good spokesperson, but he’s not someone who learns the ins and outs of policy.” Again, performance vs. reality.
While criticizing Ford’s outcomes is the stronger of the two arguments, half (51%) of Ontarians agree that “Ford is a corrupt politician who only cares about doing favours for his buddies.”
The data’s a lot worse when we look at individual policy files. Only:
16% of Ontarians think that the cost of living has improved under Ford
16% say the same of housing
16% homelessness
20% healthcare
20% life of the average Ontarian
22% crime
22% the economy
Making it easier to buy alcohol is the government’s greatest perceived strength (55%). This is followed by transportation infrastructure but still, just 26% think public transit has improved, and 33% say the same of roads and highways.
At the PCs’ current support level, the Liberals need their voters to migrate. PC voters, while less negative overall, see the same strengths (alcohol, infrastructure) and weaknesses (cost of living, housing, homelessness) as the general population. Even among his own voters, just 23% think the cost of living has improved under Ford. Yikes.
Is this enough to foster a true “time for a change” atmosphere? I’m not sure, but the foundation is good and we’re still 3 years away from the next election and 9 months from a new OLP leader.
So, chin up, Liberals! And if you’re a talented Liberal who is thinking about taking the plunge: Do it!