In a race of hypotheticals, Boozary leads: OLP leadership
What’s a little polling between friends?
Coming to you today with more polling on the Ontario Liberal leadership. You might have caught Sunday’s write-up on CTV or my interview on CP24 (because what else would you be doing on a weekend?) and think, what else is there to say? But you should know by now that I save my deepest dives for friends.
Today’s article is part of an ongoing series focused on the OLP leadership (here and here). In the latter article, I wrote about the extremely difficult task any OLP leader will face: getting attention. Ontarians consume very little news about provincial politics, so any new leader will need to be *drumroll* interesting, and specifically be able to catch eyeballs on social media.
In that spirit, today’s poll digs deeper into 1) what Liberals are looking for from their next leader, and 2) which of Karina Gould, Nate-Erskine Smith, and Andrew Boozary is most able to generate interest based on a combination of their bios, image, and social media. Basically, my research question is: Who can light a spark?
Before I bombard you with numbers, a little disclosure. This polling was self-funded by my firm, Relay Strategies. I’m also not currently working for any leadership campaign. Like most pollsters, I conduct research for marketing purposes. I’ve found that finding answers to the questions I personally want to ask makes for good writing. I hope there’s also the side benefit of helping people more clearly understand the political environment we’re living in.
The Post-Crombie World
I’ll start with a little bit of happy news for Liberals, regardless of which potential leadership candidate you’re rooting for. The OLP vote is statistically unchanged since before Bonnie Crombie announced that she will be resigning from the leadership. In my August poll, 28% said they would vote OLP/Crombie, and today 29% intend to vote for the Liberals and their next leader. The Ford PCs are down 4 points since August, mostly to the benefit of the NDP.
In addition to some slight movement in the horse race, fewer Ontarians think the province is on the right track (43%) today vs. August (47%).
Starting from Scratch
When thinking about the ideal traits of the next OLP leader, Liberal voters are most highly prioritizing experience – this could be economic (85%), political (82%), and/or public administration experience (79%), and someone who can win. Next most important is that they’re new and refreshing (71%). These are also the top-ranked attributes among those who are current or former Liberal members.
Being a Member of Provincial Parliament (MPP) is not among the top-tier of attributes tested (61% important). Ideologically speaking, Liberal voters are more likely to prioritize a candidate who is progressive or left-leaning (66%) than someone who considers themselves to be a centrist (56%).
A Field of Relative Unknowns
As I wrote in August, the leadership race is kind of a blank slate. Even for rumoured candidates who are already elected, few Ontarians know who they are. This includes:
55% of Ontarians who have never heard of Lee Fairclough
52% who have never heard of Nate Erskine-Smith
48% who have never heard of Navdeep Bains
40% who have never heard of Karina Gould
Unsurprisingly, a majority (55%) of Ontarians have also never heard of Andrew Boozary, the one political outsider tested in this poll.
Searching for a Spark
I knew from my last poll that these candidates are largely unknown, and while I tested brief bios last time, I wanted to take a fuller look. If my goal for the next liberal leader is that they can grab attention, I wanted to get as close to the experience of each candidate as I could. To do that, I gave respondents a comprehensive look at three candidates I’m hearing about the most from within the party: Andrew Boozary, Karina Gould, and Nate Erskine-Smith. For each candidate, respondents were asked to:
React to their image without any other information. First impressions matter.
Read a thorough bio for each candidate, and indicate which elements are of interest.
Indicate their interest in 3 social media posts.
Indicate if they would have continued to watch a social media video from each candidate.
Note that all stimuli tested were positive in tone to give the candidates an equal kick at the can.
After reviewing all of this information, respondents were then asked how interesting each candidate seemed and who they would ultimately prefer.
Why did I choose these candidates? Frankly, because every Liberal I talk to brings up Gould and Erskine-Smith as likely entrants to the race. I don’t know if they plan to run, but at least in my world, they’re the buzziest. I don’t hear Boozary’s name as frequently, but it comes up often. He was also tied as most interesting in my last poll (alongside Gould), so it seemed only right to include him this round.
Firstly, first impressions. Boozary has one significant advantage over both Gould and Erskine-Smith: he’s not what people expect. Just 18% of Ontarians think he looks like a typical politician, compared to 59% who say the same for Gould, and 60% for Erskine-Smith. Of course, it might just be that upon seeing their image, respondents recognize them as, in fact, politicians. I can’t really say what’s behind the why, but this is the first sign of an outsider-advantage for Boozary.
Both Boozary (50%) and Gould (51%) poll slightly ahead of Erskine-Smith (46%) in seeming like an interesting candidate. Ontarians are also a bit more likely to say they’d want to hear what Boozary (56%) and Gould (55%) have to say (52% Erskine-Smith). However, these differences are pretty subtle.
Respondents were provided with thorough descriptions of each candidate’s biography. They were then given the opportunity, line by line, to indicate which points were of interest.
Before diving into each candidate’s bio, a quick summary of their overall performance:
81% of Ontarians found at least one thing about Boozary’s bio to be interesting, including 92% of OLP voters
76% of Ontarians found at least one thing interesting about Gould’s bio, including 92% of OLP voters
74% of Ontarians found at least one thing interesting about Erskine-Smith’s bio, including 87% of OLP voters
Boozary’s experience in social medicine is what clearly sets him apart. Of all the information provided for all of the candidates, telling Ontarians that Boozary is a practicing doctor and is the ED of the Gattuso Centre for Social Medicine at the UHN, and that his work focuses on the underlying causes of medical problems, registered the highest interest. His experience establishing Dunn House in Toronto also tested very well.
The most interesting tidbits about Karina Gould are that she has been the MP for Burlington since 2015, that she’s the youngest woman to serve as a Cabinet Minister in Canadian history, that she has held a variety of Cabinet portfolios, and was responsible for $10-a-day childcare.
The elements of Nate Erskine-Smith’s bio that tested best are prior to politics, he took pro bono cases, including a civil liberties case to protect religious freedom in Ontario’s schools, and that he was the Minister of Housing from December 2024 to May 2025. Interestingly, that he has represented a Toronto riding since 2015 is much less interesting than Karina Gould representing Burlington.
A candidate’s professional background is certainly important, but people don’t really vote based on someone’s CV (with maybe the partial exception made for Mark Carney). Rather, they get a sense of a candidate in bits and pieces, image after image, video after video, story after story.
I wanted to give respondents a greater sense of what each candidate is like, and how they, the voter, would actually see them come across their feeds. I chose three images, taken from each potential candidate’s social media, that I felt were distinctive and compelling.
Boozary’s critiques of the healthcare system, which he frequently posts on Twitter/X have the broadest appeal. Overall, the most compelling social media posts tested are:
Boozary’s tweet describing our need for drug coverage for all: 73% of Ontarians found this post interesting, including 82% of OLP voters.
Boozary’s tweet describing the relative cost of housing for all: 64% of Ontarians found this post interesting, including 74% of OLP voters.
Next most interesting to Liberal voters are:
A still from a video showing “90 seconds of Karina standing up to Poilievre and the Conservatives” - 72% of OLP voters found this to be interesting
A screen grab of Boozary being interviewed on Bernie Sanders’ YouTube channel - 67% of OLP voters found this to be interesting
Gould’s Instagram post acknowledging Chrystia Freeland - 65% of OLP voters found this interesting
Erskine-Smith’s Instagram post showing his family attending the Terry Fox Run - 62% of OLP voters found this interesting
And the last part of my candidate introduction was testing an 8-second clip of each candidate speaking. The videos were cut short because I was less interested in what respondents thought of the video itself, and wanted to understand only if the respondent would have kept watching it if they saw it online. The battle for attention on social media is very competitive, so I wanted to know who can draw people in.
In choosing videos, I aimed to pick something that was recent, meaty, and felt authentic to each person’s communication style.
Overall, Ontarians are most likely to say they would have kept watching Boozary’s clip, followed by Karina Gould and then Nate Erskine-Smith.
51% of Ontarians, and 65% of OLP voters would have kept watching Boozary.
44% of Ontarians and 61% of OLP voters would have kept watching Gould.
39% of Ontarians and 52% of OLP voters reported that they would have kept watching Nate Erskine-Smith.
After going through that pretty extensive orientation to each candidate, Boozary came out ahead as the most interesting to both the general population (73%) and OLP voters (83%). Notably, he’s much more likely to be considered “very interesting” by both groups. That’s what drives enthusiasm and engagement.
By now, I’m sure you’ve caught the pattern. Next most interesting is Karina Gould (59% Ontarians, 79% OLP voters), followed by Nate Erskine-Smith (57% Ontarians, 69% OLP Voters).
However, Boozary and Gould are statistically tied among current/former Liberal members, whereas Erskine-Smith trails considerably, particularly in the percentage who find him to be “very interesting.”
Going Head-to-Head
If these three candidates entered the race, Boozary would be the clear front-runner in public opinion terms. 48% of Ontarians think Boozary would make the best leader of the Ontario Liberal Party, 30% would choose Karina Gould, and 23% would choose Nate Erskine-Smith.
What’s notable about these results is that the pattern is widespread. It’s up and down the Liberal coalition.
Among OLP voters, Boozary is +21 over Gould
Among those who are “certain” Liberal voters, he’s +17
Among “likely” OLP voters, he’s +14
Among “possible” OLP voters, he’s +21
And among current/former Liberal members, he’s +16
Boozary is also the only candidate who beats Ford in a head-to-head matchup. If they had to choose, 52% of Ontarians would prefer Andrew Boozary to be Premier of Ontario, 48% would choose Ford. This compares to the 47% that would choose Gould, and 45% that would choose Nate Erskine-Smith.
In this two-way race, Boozary would be +17 among women, compared to Gould’s +3 and Erskine-Smith’s net-0. Among men, Ford is +9 when facing Boozary, +17 vs. Gould, and +21 when matched against Erskine-Smith.
The Net-Net
There are two ways to look at this data: each candidate in isolation, and as a contest.
In isolation, if I were Karina Gould, I’d see a lot to be happy about in the data. Her first impression is strong, she has some solid progressive bona fides to run on, and she’s well-liked by partisans.
The results are less positive, but certainly not disqualifying for Nate Erskine-Smith. However, his more lukewarm reception among the most partisan of Liberals is a significant weakness in a leadership race. He’d likely need to bring in more new members than Karina Gould (again, assuming they both run).
But if we’re talking about a leadership race, with these three being the candidates, it’s a shellacking. Boozary’s advantage comes through in every level of testing. He has a very strong appeal among the base and has the potential to be an expansive candidate.
Why does he perform so well? I think it’s a combination of being an outsider + impressive credentials + having already established a compelling narrative about the failings of our healthcare system. He kind of feels like a pre-packaged solution to one of Doug Ford’s greatest deficits: his management of healthcare.
If Boozary or Martin enter the race the debate should be tilted to their expertise. Now for Gould or Erskine-Smith, I would lean heavily into education right from the start. There is a good chance education becomes a major topic next year if and when the teachers go on strike. The career politicians are going to pick their lane’s on topics to hit Ford where he is failing.
OLP voter here. I followed Boozary on Twitter during covid and was impressed. Our healthcare system needs a revamp and I am confident he has answers that our politicians have had so much difficulty working out. I love that he has proof in caring for people and how that reduces costs. It also frees up our Emergency Room pressure.
I also think the world of Nate and Karina, they both offer so much innovation. At 67 I believe it is time that millennials are given our support to change the systems that need to change.