I’ve inadvertently established a rhythm to this newsletter. Publish something semi (or purely) critical of the Liberal Party, repent by dunking on Pierre Poilievre, repeat. In that spirit, today’s article is about Ontarians’ impression of Poilievre and his continued leadership.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t first acknowledge the second most-interesting political story of the week (so far): Poilievre’s byelection win. It was expected. It was neither a particular show of strength nor weakness. And on we go.
Last week, I published a comprehensive look at the Ontario Liberal Party’s leadership challenges. TL;DR: it’s not catastrophic, but it’s not great. If you want a second look at the data, check out my interview on the Progress Canada podcast.
But, *drumroll*, Ontarians' appetite for a change in leadership is actually greater for the federal Conservatives than it is for the OLP. 55% of Ontarians think the Conservative Party needs a new leader, 26% disagree (12% strongly), and 20% aren’t sure. This compares to the 48% of Ontarians who think the OLP needs a change in leadership.
As with all questions of leadership, the impressions of the general population don’t really matter. What do conservative voters think? Well, it depends on the type of conservative voter. For the 21% of Ontarians who report voting PC in the most recent provincial election and Conservative in the federal, a not insignificant 1 in 3 voters think it’s time for a change, while 55% disagree (31% strongly). A similar portion of Poilievre voters – those who voted Conservative but not PC — feel the same. But 6 in 10 Ford voters (16% of all voters) would prefer a change in leadership.
For each of the party/leader combinations tested, impressions tend to mirror each other pretty closely. Both Mark Carney and Doug Ford provide some lift to their respective parties. Crombie’s impact is more atypical in that she’s neither more positively nor more negatively viewed than the OLP. Poilievre is the only leader tested who is creating some drag. 30% of Ontarians have a “very unfavourable” view of him, compared to 24% who say the same of his party.
Positive impressions of Poilievre are also down compared to the weekend before the election. At that time, 43% of Ontarians had a favourable view of Poilievre, compared to 32% now.
If you haven’t listened to it yet, I recommend listening to Jenni Byrne’s interview on the Beyond a Ballot podcast. I found it to be very instructive of how the Conservatives thought of the campaign, and what some of their blind spots might have been (and what mine might have been as well). Of course, public appearances aren’t under oath. You won't get the full story of the strategic decisions made, but looking at Poilievre’s favourability data in Ontario, I see the consequence of how Jenni spoke about voters.
In that interview, she discusses several segments of voters that the campaign was thinking about. She spoke about “Covid voters” and “Zyn voters.” She also provided examples of a mechanic whose team would watch Poilievre videos at work throughout the day, or a supporter’s sons who can’t afford to move out of their house. I won’t say that the Conservatives weren’t thinking about other types of voters (*cough women cough*) throughout the campaign; they most certainly were, but I think the examples we provide can be a reflection of our first instincts. In that way, I guess they’ve succeeded.
Men <50 are the only group of Ontarians who have a net-favourable impression of Poilievre. Men aged 35-49 are especially likely to view him favourably, whereas younger men tend to be more neutral. Seniors, both men and women, continue to hold very negative views of Poilievre.
All of that is to say, Pierre Poilievre: welcome back!… to Ontario!
Methodology
This article focuses on results from a survey of n=1114 Ontarians, fielded online using the Cint platform from August 7-9, 2025. The data was weighted to reflect the gender, age, regional, and education distribution of the province. The margin of error for a random sample of this size would be +/-3%.
Fascinating ! But has anyone a Transcript of Jenni Byrne from that Podcast ? (on Spotify)
I’ve been tracking & ‘backtrail researching Byrne & Harper / Ray Novak / Poilievre / Danielle Smith / Kenney / Arthur Hamilton, Tom Flanagan & Yellow Media etc since the 2011 Robo & Live Call Election Fraud.. But must say.. Social Media has been well scrubbed - especially ‘The Company That They Keep.. and/or are attempting to Distance themselves from !
It’s my belief that Jenni Byrne - Candace Bergen - Danielle Smith are all capable of Destroying ‘conservative Politics’ as it currently exists aka ‘Harperism - Harper’s Hostile Parasitic ‘Brand Annexation’ - this simply to capture the term ‘Conservative .. The rise or ‘ascension of Narcissism as a Side Effect of ‘Partisan Ambition .. being ‘Polished Daily seemingly has progressed into Clinical Malignant Narcissism .. turbo charged via Social, Viral & Mainstream Media.. Thanks for the fab Article .. !