An Early Read on Smith’s Referendum on a Referendum

Some Text Snapshot Fun

Helloooo! I’ve been a bit of an absentee Substacker lately, but with today’s article, you’ll get a sense of why.

My company, Relay Strategies, was initially built as a qualitative research company. We launched with a signature product, Text Snapshot, which allows us to conduct qualitative research via text message. I’m obviously biased, but I love these interviews.

• They can be deployed extremely quickly. I decided to launch a study while Smith was speaking last night and had quality data within two hours. That includes the time to write the questions. A researcher’s dream.

• We hear from participants in their own words, at vastly higher quality than a survey open-ended response. On average, responses are 3.3x longer, and we don’t have the same issues with… vulgarity… and AI-generated responses.

• Participation is truly accessible. For better and worse, Canadians live much of their lives on their phones. Our messages are delivered to participants’ native messaging apps. They don’t need to create an account, download an app, or check their email. Most just answer when they’re messaged.

For the past couple of months, I’ve been focused on advancing the underlying technology for Text Snapshot, so we can conduct qualitative research that’s truly at scale. Development has been very fun and exciting, but it has zapped the energy I usually put toward the newsletter. But while we’re not quite ready for the BIG ROLLOUT, I do have some ✨pilot data✨ for you today.

---

Last night, Smith announced that Alberta will be having a referendum… on a potential referendum. We live in stupid and dangerous times, but that’s just MY view. What did Albertans tell me?

I’ll first point out that this is qualitative research; it’s not representative of the broader population. Rather, it’s meant to give a sense of how people react. What words do they use? How emotionally charged are their answers? 35 Albertans completed this interview, and a further 13 completed it in part. We ensured a good mix of participants across gender, age, education, and political identity. This was a pilot project – it was meant to stress test the technology. Had I conducted this for a client, I would have done more interviews to achieve greater breadth. Regardless, there are some really interesting findings and some very tasty quotes.

For about half of the participants, separatism was top of mind and the key way they’re currently assessing the province (and the Premier). When asked how they would describe how things are going in Alberta right now, they said things like:

• A real mess because of the polarization caused by Danielle Smith

• Frustrating, Disappointing, Infuriating. Because we have a useless government that is more concerned about holding onto power, lining the pockets of their friends and themselves, and not doing what is best for all Albertans and Canadians.

• Alberta has a political problem with the right wing and the far right have all the power pretty much all of the time. It leads to arrogance and catering to the fringes when that happens.

• As for myself things are going well but for the province there seems to be a lot of unrest in regard to Alberta separating from Canada.🇨🇦 Our premier certainly has her hands full. I can’t believe people would want to separate.

To some, separatism is just one of a litany of issues on their minds.

• Things in Alberta are tough. Expensive gas, food, utilities. Separatists are making us look bad. We do not want to separate.

• We’re currently focused on energy and oil industry growth, building economy, budget pressure, political tension, and debate on future direction.

Others identified very real and anxiety-provoking issues, primarily around the cost of living and the economy, but separatism wasn’t most on their mind.

• Big problems with the hospital and wait times, the police are very lacking with what they do, the problem with not enough oil field jobs and the homeless crises, being able to find housing and to shop for affordable food.

• Honestly, Alberta feels kind of stressful but also full of opportunity right now. Everything’s getting more expensive like rent, food, and bills, and a lot of people seem unsure about the future. But at the same time, there are still jobs and people keep moving here because there are opportunities you can’t always find in other places

• I would describe Alberta as a housing crisis, unaffordable, too many immigrants and no jobs for our youth. I choose these words because it is so sad to see all the homeless and how our youth are so hopeless. My granddaughter said she doesn’t believe she will ever be able to own her own home. So sad.

• Things are going quite terribly. Nothing is ever getting better and everything is getting worse. It’s impossible to get a job anywhere

While a minority view, a few participants were energized by the prospect of Alberta separatism.

• Things are good. We get our referendum on staying in Canada. I think the Liberals are ruining this country.

• Am positive to vote for separation as a loyal Albertan. Provides more say in the running of government. Opportunity to cut ties with the Federal Government.

• I’m following the Alberta separatism pretty closely, and I’m 100% with Alberta independence. I’m tired of paying high taxes on everything

Most of those who are opposed to separatism feel it in their bones, and they’re frustrated and/or furious that this debate is even taking place.

• It makes me feel the government and the separatists should all be stripped of their citizenships and kicked out of the country and sent packing to the U.S. since they think that cesspit is a better place. For the Albertans who are proud to be Canadian, I appreciate them. For those who think being a part of Canada sucks, then go away. Also makes me think those people are incredibly stupid if they think economically things would be better in any single way as an independent country.

• Follow all of it about separatism. It makes me feel annoyed as it’s crazy to think of not being a part of Canada. I think Alberta needs to come back to common sense

• I’ve been following conversations about the Alberta separatists a little. The issue makes me annoyed. My view of Alberta hasn’t changed but my view on some Albertans has. I see people who want to separate differently. It reminds me of Klans people. If you don’t like it here, move.

Many raised the opportunity cost and wastefulness of the referendum, and of the separatist debate in general.

• [Following the referendum] Relatively closely. It infuriates me because I am a proud Canadian and I also see it as all a smokescreen from the government to hide its deficiencies, to keep people distracted, to waste taxpayers’ money, and to stoke a senseless fight and an unjustified fight with Ottawa.

• Unpredictable, Scary, Divisive, Wrong priorities, Maddening, Wasteful The UCP is wasting money on things we don’t need, like a referendum. As opposed to funding public health Care, education, public transport, etc

• It makes me angry, separatism is awful and the whole thing is a waste of time. It’s made my view worse. It’s a referendum only crazy people asked for

Participants were told, “[Earlier this evening/Yesterday], Premier Smith announced that the province will hold a referendum this fall that asks voters if they want Alberta to remain in Canada or if the government should hold a second, binding referendum asking if the province should begin the formal process of separation. Basically, it will be a referendum on whether to hold a referendum,” and asked about their reaction to the news. In line with their preexisting attitudes, many were deeply annoyed by Smith’s announcement and felt it was risky.

• I think the whole thing is ridiculous. I think it’s a bad move for the province. | Alberta doesn’t need to separate or leave Canada. If you don’t like it here in Canada, move.

• I throw up my hands in angst and disgust. This is bad news. Makes the province look unstable which will scare investors away.

• I am disgusted. The court ruled it was unconstitutional and yet she wants to overturn this decision

• I am very surprised with her reaction because she could have stopped this whole thing herself if she wanted to. I think it was a bad decision on her part because now she has both sides angry at her.

However, even among those opposed to the referendum, some hoped this would kill the issue. At a minimum, some felt that people deserve to have their voices heard.

• Could be good but she is trying to placate both her base and everyone else. She’s proven inept at managing that task and seems to default to her base. Plus she’s hoping no one notices she made the announcement while the committee was still meeting. And she calls the courts undemocratic?

• I think it’s bad in the sense that it’s even gotten this far. However, this is also a chance to nip this in the bud and put the conversation to rest once and for all. In that way it’s good. I firmly believe that Albertans will reject separation.

• I agree with the decision? If that many people want their voices heard out it to a vote.

• I think everyone deserves a voice. But it will not be successful.

One of the clearest findings in the study is how strongly participants believe Danielle Smith is beholden to her base. While some feel like she is personally a separatist, more think she’s simply trying to placate them so she doesn’t lose her job. It’s the riskiest of politics.

• To satisfy her base. All of the above. To remain in power Smith must prevent vote splitting. The conservative vote could potentially be split 3 ways next election with the Alberta Tory Party now on the scene and Peter Guthrie ramping up his social media presence.

• Delay until she can rewrite more laws to satisfy her base? Pretend she’s really not a separatist? Who knows. Guess we’ll have to wait for her next radio show to get the real truth.

• I think she is being pressed to do this by the people behind the referendum question. She is afraid of a leadership fight.

• I think Daniel Smith usually acts on pride and social status like Trump. Also she is a populist and likes to please the voters, but that could quickly change.

• I believe there is some outside influence at play. I think those outside influences seek to divide us. There has always been a small separatist movement here. I think she sees this as her chance to consolidate power.

This idea came up both unprompted and in response to specific explanations of why Smith decided to hold this referendum. Participants were given three possible explanations: “1) It’s her job to uphold the democratic will of Albertans. 300,000 Albertans signed a petition to separate, so she’s respecting their view by holding the referendum. 2) Danielle Smith is personally a separatist, and she wants Alberta to separate from Canada. 3) Danielle Smith is beholden to her separatist supporters, so she’s holding the referendum so she can keep her job.” Participants were then asked which statement they agreed with most. The third explanation was selected most frequently, although her newest announcement appears effective at making people think she might actually be a separatist as well.

My overall take? There are times of elite panic when our media decides an issue is a BIG DEAL, but the general public kind of goes “meh.” This doesn’t seem like one of those issues. As you can feel when reading their responses, those who are opposed are largely piiiiiiiissssssseeeeed. And those who are on the side of the referendum feel righteous in their views. This will be a big collision of values, not just for Politics but for people on the ground as well.

---

If you’re interested in learning more about how Text Snapshot could help your organization, shoot me an email. I’ve found these interviews especially useful for understanding public reactions to emerging issues, development projects, and community services 👀👀.